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jeudi 25 novembre 2010

Risk-Aversion Buoys JPY, BoC Awaited

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Risk-aversion continued to dictate market direction, with the Japanese yen touching a fresh 15-year high against the dollar while most of the major currencies tumbled against the greenback. The Canadian dollar slid by 1.2% and the euro dropped by more than 1.5%. The US equity bourses slid after returning from the long-weekend, with the major indexes shedding more than 1%. Meanwhile, safe-haven flows propped spot gold it’s a new record higher to settle around $1,257.30 per ounce while crude oil drifted lower to dip beneath the $73-per barrel mark.

Central bank policy decisions will be the key event risks in the week ahead. The Reserve Bank of Australia announced the results of its policy deliberation, leaving interest rates on hold at 4.5%. The accompanying policy statement was largely unchanged from the August statement, widely seen as more dovish and indicative the RBA leaving rates on hold for the rest of the year.

The Bank of Canada is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision at 9:00 AM EDT, with consensus forecasts calling for a 25-basis point rate hike to 1.0%. Traders will closely scrutinize the accompany statement from the BoC. In light of the sharp pullback in second quarter GDP growth, which revealed the pace of economic growth slowing to 2.0% and down drastically from first quarter growth of 5.8%, it will be interesting to see whether the Bank will downwardly revise its growth outlook again following the downgrades from the policy statement issued in July. Given market expectations leaning toward a rate hike tomorrow, the risk stands with an unchanged BoC decision and a signal that interest rates will remain on hold in the near future as a result of the pullback in economic activity. If that scenario was to materialize, the reaction in the currency market will likely prompt a knee-jerk sell-off in the Loonie to breach the 1.0550-mark.

jeudi 21 octobre 2010

analyse forex 2010

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USD-CHF
Les chiffres du marché de l'emploi américain, en baisse, viennent s'ajouter aux autres chiffres négatifs publiés récemment aux Etats-Unis. La réaction du dollar a été immédiate et nous avons assisté à un nouveau record négatif pour la parité USD/CHF, qui a reculé hier de 1.0185 à 1.0066! Nous avions annoncé une pluie de records pour le franc suisse et le yen. Pour l'instant, seul le franc suisse suit notre pronostic et nous devrions atteindre rapidement la barre critique des 1.0000. Canal de fluctuation de 1.0050-1.0200.
EUR-USD
Mauvaise journée pour le dollar durant ces dernières 24 heures, avec une parité EUR/USD qui surprend en bien, avec une montée de 1.2664 à 1.2855 suite aux mauvais chiffres de l'emploi aux Etats-Unis, à des ventes de véhicules totales en baisse à 11,47 millions pour le mois d'août et des indices des directeurs d'achat manufacturiers stables en Europe. Le point crucial de cette séance sera la réunion de la BCE et les commentaires de Jean-Claude Trichet qui devraient suivre… Le PNB européen du 2e trimestre sera également publié ce matin et nous devrions évoluer dans le canal de 1.2700-1.2900 d'ici la fin de la semaine.
USD-JPY
L'USD/JPY a bien résisté à la baisse généralisée du dollar sur le marché des changes. La parité USD/JPY a reculé de 84.50 à 83.69, mais la peur d'une intervention de la part de la Banque du Japon empêche provisoirement une baisse plus rapide de la parité. Nous attendons cet après-midi aux Etats-Unis la publication de nombreux indicateurs économiques (nouvelles demandes d'allocations chômage, productivité, commandes de biens durables, commandes d'usine, coûts du travail, etc.) Canal de fluctuation pour ce jeudi de 83.50-85.00. Le cross EUR/JPY a évolué entre 106.60 et 108.61 depuis hier matin.
EUR-CHF
Le fort rebond enregistré par les bourses mondiales en cette première journée de septembre a enlevé la pression haussière exercée sur le franc suisse. Le cross EUR/CHF est, en effet, remonté de 1.2852 à 1.3040. La force actuelle de la monnaie helvétique n'est pas seulement préjudiciable à notre industrie d'exportation et à la BNS, mais aussi aux banques hongroises qui, selon la banque centrale, doivent faire face à des pertes colossales sur les emprunts en francs suisses contractés à l'époque pour bénéficier de taux d'intérêt bon marché. Or, ces emprunts se trouvent aujourd'hui fortement pénalisés par la valeur du franc suisse. Canal de fluctuation pour ce jeudi de 1.2950-1.3050.
GBP-USD
Malgré un indice des directeurs d'achat manufacturier en forte baisse au Royaume-Uni, le Cable a réussi à remonter la pente, avec une hausse de 1.5337 à 1.5491 (proche du centre de notre canal hebdomadaire de 1.5250-1.5750). Aujourd'hui, le canal de fluctuation du Cable devrait être identique à celui d'hier.

le gouvernement défend son plan d'austérité sous une pluie de critiques

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Le gouvernement britannique a défendu jeudi son plan d'austérité d'ampleur sans précédent dévoilé la veille, rejetant les nombreuses accusations d'injustice, alors que le pays commençait à peine à prendre la mesure des lourds sacrifices à venir.
Le ministre des Finances, George Osborne, a martelé sur les ondes des radios et télévisions que la réduction du déficit record dont avait hérité son gouvernement était "inévitable" et a défendu ses "choix difficiles" consistant notamment à réduire de façon drastique les allocations sociales.
"Nous avons pris des mesures pour sortir le Royaume-Uni d'une zone de danger financière", a-t-il plaidé.
"J'ai fait un choix conscient, en décidant de maintenir les dépenses de santé et d'éducation", au détriment des allocations sociales, et "je pense que ce sont des décisions justes", a ajouté le chancelier de l'Echiquier (titre officiel du ministre).
M. Osborne avait détaillé mercredi un plan d'austérité qui entraînera la suppression de près de 500.000 emplois publics et des coupes drastiques dans les dépenses sociales.
Ce plan -considéré comme le plus sévère des grands pays de l'Union européenne- vise à réaliser 81 milliards de livres (environ 92 milliards d'euros) d'économies en moins de cinq ans, auxquels s'ajouteront 30 milliards de livres de hausses d'impôts, pour ramener le déficit britannique à 1,1% du PIB en 2015 contre 10,1% cette année.
Au lendemain de ces annonces chocs, dont les effets ne se feront sans doute vraiment sentir que l'an prochain, les reproches pleuvaient de toutes parts, le gouvernement se voyant accusé par la presse et de nombreux commentateurs d'avoir "manié la hache" aveuglément, en imposant les sacrifices les plus importants aux ménages les moins aisés.
Le parti travailliste, relégué dans l'opposition depuis sa défaite cuisante aux élections législatives de juin, a ainsi dénoncé une "stratégie de la terre brûlée".
De son côté, l'Institut d'édudes budgétaires (IFS), un centre de réflexion indépendant, a qualifié le plan d'austérité de "régressif", dans la mesure où les ménages les moins aisés seront touchés plus durement que les plus riches, selon ses calculs.
M. Osborne a rejeté catégoriquement ces reproches, assurant que tout le monde était mis à contribution, et que les ménages les plus riches seraient les plus durement frappés.
Il a par ailleurs reçu le soutien des libéraux démocrates, partenaires de coalition des conservateurs au sein du gouvernement de David Cameron. Les "lib-dems" ont serré les rangs en assurant que les coupes budgétaires étaient "les plus justes possibles".
La presse a souligné quant à elle le bouleversement historique qu'entraînera la chute des dépenses publiques et le repli spectaculaire de l'Etat providence.
Parmi les quotidiens proches des conservateurs, le Telegraph saluait un "ensemble de mesures intelligent, méthodique et courageux", tandis que le Sun se félicitait que le chancelier ait "botté les fesses de la Grande-Bretagne" en sonnant le glas de la "culture de l'assistanat".
Mais le Guardian (centre-gauche) s'offusquait du cynisme d'un gouvernement "qui contenait difficilement sa joie" d'avoir imposé au pays une cure d'austérité que Margaret Thatcher n'aurait pas tentée "même en rêve".
Les syndicats se sont quant à eux engagés à mobiliser la population en vue de s'opposer à ces coupes, mais sans concrétiser leur menace d'organiser des grèves massives.

La Bourse de Paris accélère

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La Bourse de Paris poursuivait sa progression jeudi après-midi, le CAC 40 gagnant 1,36% après des résultats de sociétés meilleurs que prévu des deux côtés de l'Atlantique.
A 16H20 (14H20 GMT), l'indice parisien s'adjugeait 51,89 points à 3.880,04 points dans un volume d'échanges de 2,535 milliards d'euros.
Après des débuts timides, le marché parisien a accéléré la cadence en cours de séance, stimulé par des résultats d'entreprises qui ont fait passer au second plan les indicateurs publiés en zone euro.
Même mouvement à Wall Street où les résultats d'entreprises soutiennent la cote.
La publication de deux indicateurs d'activité américains a dynamisé encore un peu plus le marché parisien qui se rapprochait des 3.900 points.
L'activité industrielle de la région de Philadelphie s'est pourtant stabilisée en octobre, tandis que l'indice composite des indicateurs économiques américains est ressorti conforme aux attentes du marché.
Côté valeurs, Pernod Ricard (+6,17% 65,36 euros), Publicis (+4,97% à 37,52 euros) et Danone (+4,96% à 45,52 euros) se maintenaient en très grande forme, après des publications trimestrielles meilleures que prévu.
Axa perdait 0,76% à 13,7 euros sur un abaissement de recommandation à "neutre" par Exane BNP Paribas.
Les bancaires subissaient de légères prises de bénéfices, comme Société Générale (-0,31% à 43,71 euros) et Natixis (-0,22% à 4,53 euros).

mercredi 27 janvier 2010

Euro Rebounds Versus Dollar After Obama’s Speech

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Euro Rebounds Versus Dollar After Obama’s Speech

EuroAfter touching the lowest level in 2010 yesterday versus the U.S., the euro advanced on speculations that a White House proposal will shun investors from North America, allowing the euro to gain versus the greenback in foreign-exchange markets this Friday.

The euro posted its first advance versus the dollar since Tuesday as U.S. President Barack Obama speech done yesterday proposing news restrictions and prohibitions for financial institutions in the country to use in hedge funds and other types of investment. which could create a new credit bubble and harm the economy as a whole. The euro pared much of its previous days losses versus the pound after a U.K. report indicated a worse-than-expected advance in retail sales in the country, forcing the pound down versus most of the main traded currencies.

Even if the economic health of several Euroland member countries remain rather complicated, the pessimism is strong everywhere, and that allowed the euro to pare some of its losses, according to currency strategists. The euro’s advance is unlikely to follow during the next week, as Greece budget deficit is far from a solution, and other countries are likely to have the same issues in the near future.

EUR/USD traded at 1.4165 as of 17:41 GMT from a previous rate of 1.4091 yesterday. EUR/GBP traded at 0.8779 from 0.8694.

If you want to comment on the Euro’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

South Korean Won Biggest Loser in Asia on Risk Aversion

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South Korean Won Biggest Loser in Asia on Risk Aversion

South Korean wonThe South Korean currency, one of the best performers in 2009 among Asian emerging markets, had a severe weekly decline as risk aversion remained predominant after China’s statements regarding new regulations on its economy.

After China announced it will take further measures to control inflation in the country, which can be understood with implied slower economic growth, the South Korean currency declined versus most of its main trading partners currencies, as was the worst performer in the Asian region this week in foreign-exchange markets.

USD/KRW ended the week at 1,152.50 from an opening rate of 1,136.2 this Friday.

If you want to comment on the Korean won’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Yen More Attractive on Renewed Risk Aversion

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Yen More Attractive on Renewed Risk Aversion

Japanese yenThe yen ended the week with a very positive performance versus most of the main traded currencies as a new wave of risk aversion brought traders to purchase assets in the Asian country, since the yen is well-known for being the safest refuge currency for times of uncertainty in trading markets.

The yen climbed significantly this week versus the U.S. dollar after a White House statement proposing new regulations for banking institutions in the country fueled speculations that investments will decrease in the U.S., forcing investors to abandon dollar-priced assets to search for safety in Japan. The euro remained unattractive allowing the yen to post a weekly advance as Greece’s financial crisis continue to raise concerns among traders regarding the Eurozone economic future. The pound also dropped versus the yen despite inflation positive figures, as retail sales unexpectedly fell in the end of the week.

Risk aversion is coming from different directions, China and U.S. statements regarding financial restrictions had a huge impact in market sentiments, that’s behind yen’s rally this week. If new tightening policies become a rule globally, the yen will certainly rally further.

USD/JPY closed the week at 89.80 from as high as 91.86 on Thursday. EUR/JPY closed at 126.91 from as high as 129.48 on Thursday.

If you want to comment on the Japanese yen’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Pound Bullish Before GDP Report

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Pound Bullish Before GDP Report

Great Britain poundThe pound rose in the beginning of this week’s trading session before a gross domestic report to be published tomorrow in the U.K., which according to forecasts will show positive figures, making the Great Britain to leave the worst recession since the Second World War.

The U.K. currency is rallying on hopes that forecasts for a GDP report will be confirmed tomorrow, showing an quarterly advance of 0.4 percent, which would revert a negative trend for the British economy that made the pound to rank among the worst bets in currency markets during most of 2009. Despite speculations regarding tomorrow’s GDP data, the pound also gained today as Rightmove Plc published a positive real estate report expecting house prices to grow until the next year based on the economic recovery forecasts for the U.K. during the current year.

Analysts explain the pound’s renewed attractiveness based on two distinct factors, one is the economic recovery outlook expected for 2010 in the British Isles, and at the same time, currencies like the euro are losing appeal as the early recovery in the region could have cooled down, allowing the pound to touch higher levels.

EUR/GBP declined to 87.38 as of 15:06 GMT from a previous rate of 0.8789 when markets opened yesterday. GBP/USD climbed to 1.6172 from 1.6086.

If you want to comment on the Great Britain pound’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Stocks Push Loonie Further Down

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Stocks Push Loonie Further Down

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar continued its last week trajectory this Monday as markets that have strong correlation with its price operated on the red globally, forcing the loonie down versus virtually all of 16 main traded currencies in the beginning of this week.

Since risk aversion declined two weeks ago with a Chinese statement announcing lending restrictions in the country and followed by a White House speech concerning the same tendency in the U.S. last week, the Canadian dollar declined significantly and today aggravated its drop as commodities and stocks did not manage to rebound from last days’ retraction. The crude oil was very volatile today, trading near $75 a barrel in New York, and it has been having a great part of responsibility behind the loonie’s actual rates, since Canada is one of the main energy providers for the U.S., and the new financial regulations trend coming from China and the United States are impacting commodities market sentiment, as traders expect economic growth to accelerate at a slower pace since bank loans will not be granted so easily as they used to be.

Analysts stress on the correlation between commodities and the Canadian dollar rates, at the same time that they suggest that the loonie would be undervalued for the moment. The speculations of parity with the U.S. dollar have definitely disappeared for the moment, and now traders are analyzing how low can the loonie trade within the present conditions.

USD/CAD traded at 1.0592 from a previous rate of 1.0578 when markets opened yesterday. AUD/CAD traded at 0.9568 from an opening rate of 0.9556.

If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Yen Climbs on Market Sentiment Pessimism

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Yen Climbs on Market Sentiment Pessimism

Japanese yenThe yen continued to profit from a favorable scenario for refuge currencies as traders are increasingly concerned regarding the economic trends for 2010, as requirements for bank loans are becoming stricter, fact which could slow down the growth pace in most of the world’s wealthiest nations.

Risk aversion remained high in the beginning of this Wednesday’s sessions as the International Monetary Fund insisted on statements stressing on the weakness of the current global economic situation, after it announced last week that Greece may need a bail out from the institution to reorganize its public accounts. The yen traded at the highest level in 9 months versus the euro as the European Central Bank is increasing its concerns regarding some Eurozone members growing budget deficits, as its the case in most of southern European nations using the single currency.

The global economic scenario took a grimmer trajectory then what most forecasts expected for the beginning of 2010, and as lending restrictions to avoid new credit bubbles are likely to become a global trend, the yen have good odds of gaining versus high-yielding currencies, as the expected acceleration for GDP figures in the first quarter of the current year has significant chances of becoming a global frustration.

EUR/JPY traded at 125.81 as of 01:20 GMT from a previous intraday rate of 128.11.

If you want to comment on the Japanese yen’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Brazil Real Remains Near 2010 Record Low

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Brazil Real Remains Near 2010 Record Low

Brazilian RealThe Brazilian real continued to be influenced by bearish equities and commodities markets and did not manage to pare gains after falling during the most of the time last week.

Brazil is one of the main metallic commodity exporters in the world, and uncertainty brought by U.S. and Chinese statements regarding new financial regulations for loans in both countries still impacted market , decreasing demand for raw materials and riskier assets globally, forcing the real to trade near the lowest price in 2010 reached last Friday.

USD/BRL closed today at 1.8240 from an opening rate of 1.8155.

If you want to comment on the Brazilian real’s recent action or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.

Canadian Dollar Reaches 2010 Record Low on Risk Aversion

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Canadian Dollar Reaches 2010 Record Low on Risk Aversion

Canadian DollarThe Canadian dollar continued to decline today reaching the lowest level in five weeks as risk aversion rose globally, fueled by China’s new restrictive loans policy, which is likely to decrease appeal for currencies like the loonie, extreme related to commodities and stocks performance.

As China’s announcements regarding new tightening lending conditions for financial institutions started to affect bank loans in the country, risk aversion continued to move the loonie rates down as Canada’s economic growth for 2010 will rely on the global economic recovery, since the country’s raw materials production is mainly directed to exporting markets. The crude oil, one of the main sources of revenue for the Canadian trade balance, posted another drop today as traders fear that lending limitations in China may slow down the economy and consequently the demand for energy globally, forcing energetic commodities down as well this Tuesday.

Forecasts for the global economy are getting more uncertain by the day, and the Canadian dollar has been affected by this shift in market sentiment. Even if some currency specialists judge the current loonie rates as below their real value, the Canadian dollar may touch new record lows as long as demand for commodities decline.

USD/CAD traded at 1.0621 as of 23:32 GMT from a previous rate of 1.0543 yesterday. CAD/JPY traded at 84.33 from 85.48.

If you want to comment on the Canadian dollar’s or have any questions regarding this currency, please, feel free to reply below.